Vouchers increase taxes

The "fuzzy math" being used to convince Utahns to support Referendum 1 is enough to make anyone's head spin!

Now, the Utah Taxpayer's Association (an organization that has publicly supported vouchers all along) is trying to tell taxpayers that if vouchers are rejected, then there will be a tax increase because there will be more children to educate. Huh?

Well, let's break this down without their "fuzzy math" and rely instead on data that has REAL sources.

For one, yes, there is a huge enrollment increase anticipated. This is not news. The Utah State Office of Education projects that today's estimated 540,189 students in public schools will swell to 616,227 by 2012, and grow to 681,484 by 2016. (See the chart here.)

That is growth of 26%.

HOWEVER, the Legislative Fiscal Analysts, as reported here in the Deseret News, estimate that about 2% of Utah students will switch from public schools to voucher schools (the rest of the students who receive vouchers will be those entering kindergarten this year, or those already in private schools).

That won't make a significant difference in public school enrollment and certainly not enough to avoid figuring out how to pay for the increasing number of kids.

It is far more logical to conclude that if APPROVED vouchers will lead to a tax increase. Why?

Two reasons:

1) In five years, public schools will lose the little money they receive for voucher students. Yes, that's right. The so-called "extra money" for public schools GOES AWAY in five years. At that time, Utah's public schools could lose $46 million in state revenue. Where do you think they will turn to make up that lost revenue?

It's happened before. The Milwaukee voucher program has forced the local school board to INCREASE property taxes. Yes, that is INCREASE taxes, not decrease taxes. To pay for voucher students.

"For city property taxpayers, it is a lousy deal. For each child in MPS, the city taxpayer provides $1,954; for each child in a choice school, city taxpayers pay up to $2,925 - or $971 more for a child in a choice school than an MPS school." -- from Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett's report here.

2) Vouchers will cause a tax increase because state taxpayers will be paying an average $2,000 for voucher students who previously cost the state $0. Yes, that's right. Currently the state pays $0 for every student who attends private school. By the time the voucher program is fully phased in, every student in private school will be getting a voucher (this according to the impartial analysis in the Utah Voter Guide). Even those students who NEVER would have gone to public school will get a voucher.

This will cost Utah taxpayers $429 million between now and 2020. In 2020, the ANNUAL cost to educate voucher students will be $71 million, as reported in the Voter Guide:

"Based on certain assumptions, the Legislative Fiscal Analyst estimates that the Parent Choice in Education Program will cost the state:
• $5,500,000 during the Program’s first year;
and
• $71,000,000 during the Program’s 13th year, after all private school students in Utah have become eligible for a scholarship."

That is $71 million paid in ONE YEAR to educate voucher students who previously cost taxpayers $0 because they were in private school. And the state does NOT currently pay for all the students in private schools.

Plus, the costs will mount year after year as taxpayers bear the burden for students who, without vouchers, cost $0.

Taxpayers get it in the end because they will be paying for public schools and for voucher schools. Two systems. Two payments. More money from taxpayers.

Now that is NOT "fuzzy math."